< Chapter 5: The Accidents of History
Aristotle called this the ‘Lazy Argument’: Leibniz followed in Aristotle’s tracks in his Theodicy: Wikipedia Contributors. (2005). Lazy argument. In Wikipedia. Wikimedia Foundation. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lazy_argument
explained the classicist George Steiner: In Our Time, Tragedy. (1999, December 2). [Radio show]. BBC Radio 4. https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p005464v. [Around 10 minutes in.]
another cause of the discord between the two men: Rather typically, Newton didn’t get involved directly, but via his intermediary Samuel Clarke: Wikipedia Contributors. (2025). Leibniz–Clarke correspondence. In Wikipedia. Wikimedia Foundation. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leibniz%E2%80%93Clarke_correspondence
Voltaire’s first big success was an adaptation of Oedipus– and his first big scandal arose from a gender-flipped version of the same story: Wikipedia contributors. (2022). Oedipus (Voltaire play). In Wikipedia. Wikimedia Foundation. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oedipus_(Voltaire_play)
as he famously argued in his 1851 essay On the Sufferings of the World: Schopenhauer, A. (1923). On the sufferings of the world. In T. B. Saunders (Trans.), Studies in Pessimism: A series of essays. George Allen & Unwin. https://www.gutenberg.org/files/10732/10732-h/10732-h.htm#link2H_4_0002
When Albert Einstein’s great friend Michael Besso died in 1955, he wrote to Besso’s family: Einstein, A. (1955, March 21). [Letter to Vero Besso & Bice Rusconi]. https://www.christies.com/en/stories/einstein-letters-to-michele-besso-3ecca787d9be4463a8695269259d6c00
While many physicists do believe it, they either shrug at it or begrudge it: Falk, D. (2016, July 19). A debate over the physics of time. Quanta Magazine. https://www.quantamagazine.org/a-debate-over-the-physics-of-time-20160719/
Better Never to Have Been: The Harm of Coming into Existence [footnote]: Benatar’s specific wording comes from Sophocles’s sequel, Oedipus at Colonus. As the now-blind king awaits his death, having been cursed yet again, the chorus sings: ‘Never to have been born is best / But if we must see the light, the next best / Is quickly returning whence we came.’
a 27-year-old Indian man called Raphael Samuel told the BBC: Pandey, G. (2019, February 7). Indian man to sue parents for giving birth to him. BBC News. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-47154287
challenges that would have instantly defeated any other animal [footnote]: Some neuroscientists argue that our sense of agency is illusory for a different reason: because what we perceive as decisions and actions made of our own free will are actually the result of subconscious, automatic processes. But this suggestion is even more counter-intuitive, and contentious, than the block universe.
Some years ago, I reported for the BBC on the potential for new religious movements: Paul-Choudhury, S. (2019, August 2). Tomorrow’s gods: What is the future of religion? BBC Future. https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190801-tomorrows-gods-what-is-the-future-of-religion
Aristotle, in his treatise on logic, On Interpretation, gave the more dramatic example of a sea battle: ‘Socrates’. (2014, May 5). Aristotle’s De Interpretatione: Fate or free will? Classical Wisdom. https://classicalwisdom.com/philosophy/aristotle/aristotles-de-interpretatione-fate-free-will/
Øhrstrøm, P., & Hasle, P. (2024). Future contingents. In E. N. Zalta & U. Nodelman (Eds.), Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Fall 2024). Metaphysics Research Lab, Stanford University. https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/future-contingents/
‘There is nothing true in Oedipus’ life at the moment of his tragic fall that was not also true every single moment of every prior day’: https://openlibrary.org/works/OL20854638W/Theatre_and_Knowledge?edition=key%3A/books/OL28236173M
Others have suggested that various combinations of the past, present or future don’t actually exist: Ingram, D., & Tallant, J. (2018). Presentism. In E. N. Zalta & U. Nodelman (Eds.), Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Winter 2023). Metaphysics Research Lab, Stanford University. https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/presentism/
guess at what’s on the pages you haven’t arrived at yet [footnote]: Trust me, they’re great – much better than this one. Keep going.
one of the most widely favoured approaches was first suggested by the fourteenth-century English theologian William of Ockham: Ockham, W. (1969). Predestination, God’s foreknowledge, and future contingents. (M. McCord Adams & N. Kretzmann, Trans.). Appleton-Century-Crofts. https://archive.org/details/predestinationgo0000will (Original work published 1324)
Leibniz tackled the problem of future contingents in his own time: Murray, M. J. (1995). Leibniz on divine foreknowledge of future contingents and human freedom. Philosophy and Phenomenological Research, 55(1), 75. https://doi.org/10.2307/2108310
This, he suggested, would happen in a vast ‘forecast factory’: Lynch, P. (2015, October). Richardson’s fantastic forecast factory. European Meteorological Society. https://www.emetsoc.org/resources/rff/
By ‘computers’ Richardson meant not machines, but human mathematicians – a cool 64,000 of them [footnote]: This use of the term ‘computer’ has been more widely understood in recent years, with particular reference to the people who performed the calculations needed for the Apollo space programme – first by hand and later by programming early electronic computers. In meteorology, as in astrodynamics, many of these computers were women whose contributions went largely unacknowledged.
a five-day forecast today is as accurate as a one-day forecast was in 1980: Alley, R. B., Emanuel, K. A., & Zhang, F. (2019). Advances in weather prediction. Science, 363(6425), 342–344. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aav7274
economic benefits worth an estimated $162 billion each year: Kull, D. W., Riishojgaard, L. P., Eyre, J., & Varley, R. A. (2021). The value of surface-based meteorological observation data (English). In World Bank Group. World Bank Group. https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/192461614151036836/the-value-of-surface-based-meteorological-observation-data
‘Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly’s Wings in Brazil Set Off a Tornado in Texas?’ [footnote]: Originally, Lorenz had described the instigating factor as the flapping of a gull’s wing, but his colleagues suggested a more poetic metaphor would meet with greater success. They were apparently correct.
Lorenz, E. N. (1972, December 29). Predictability; does the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas? Fermat’s Library. American Association for the Advancement of Science, 139th meeting, Sheraton Park Hotel. https://fermatslibrary.com/s/predictability-does-the-flap-of-a-butterflys-wings-in-brazil-set-off-a-tornado-in-texas
Weather forecasters today get around this problem by generating ensembles of forecasts: What is an ensemble forecast? (n.d.). Met Office. Retrieved May 19, 2025, from https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/weather/ensemble-forecasting/what-is-an-ensemble-forecast
Sometimes, however, the climate does change markedly, as it did during the year without a summer; it can also be more protracted and regional [correction]: This should read ‘as it did globally during the year without a summer’; changes can also be more protracted and regional’.
As my friend and colleague Michael Brooks puts it: Brooks, M. (2007, May 16). Climate myths: Chaotic systems are not predictable. New Scientist, 2604. https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11641-climate-myths-chaotic-systems-are-not-predictable/
will produce likely scenarios under different assumptions about the level of emissions: You can explore these for yourselves on sites like https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/ipcc-scenarios (IPCC scenarios data explorer. (n.d.). Our World in Data. Retrieved May 19, 2025) or https://climatescenarios.org/toolkit/ (Senses toolkit. (n.d.). Senses Toolkit. Retrieved May 19, 2025)
in 2021, researchers at Stanford University estimated: Garthwaite, J. (2021, December 14). Climate of chaos: Stanford researchers show why heat may make weather less predictable. Stanford Report. https://news.stanford.edu/stories/2021/12/warming-makes-weather-less-predictable
the ice cover was what would be predicted to occur just once in 2.7 million years: Thomson, J. (2023, July 26). Antarctic sea ice hits once-per-2.7-million-year “six sigma” event. Newsweek. https://www.newsweek.com/antarctica-sea-ice-loss-climate-change-1815428
we will push a critical element of the climate past a point of no return: Armstrong McKay, D. I., Staal, A., Abrams, J. F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S. E., Rockström, J., & Lenton, T. M. (2022). Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points. Science, 377(6611). https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950
you would have little idea what was coming next [footnote]: This is essentially the issue faced by the aliens in Cixin Liu’s science-fiction blockbuster The Three-Body Problem: their planet’s three suns create a chaotic system.
the team that came up with it were seeking to find out if it was even possible: Sutter, P. (2022, May 25). Physicists predict Earth will become a chaotic world, with dire consequences. Live Science. https://www.livescience.com/humanity-turns-earth-chaotic-climate-system
Bernardini, A. E., Bertolami, O., & Francisco, F. (2022). Chaotic behaviour of the Earth system in the Anthropocene. arXiv. https://arxiv.org/abs/2204.08955
‘The battle to feed all of humanity is over,’ declared the 1968 book The Population Bomb: Ehrlich, P. R. (1968). The population bomb. Ballantine Books. https://openlibrary.org/works/OL3294965W/Population_Bomb
widely considered to have resulted from the redirection of rice to the British war effort in Southeast Asia: Puri, K. (2024). Three Million [Radio show]. BBC Radio 4. https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/brand/m001wr57
Lyndon Johnson had threatened India with just such a withdrawal in 1966: Ahlberg, K. L. (2007). ‘Machiavelli with a heart’: The Johnson administration’s food for peace program in India, 1965–1966. Diplomatic History, 31(4), 665–701. https://doi.org/10.2307/24916200
Charles Mann wrote in Smithsonian magazine in 2018: Mann, C. C. (2018, January 2). The book that incited a worldwide fear of overpopulation. Smithsonian. https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/book-incited-worldwide-fear-overpopulation-180967499/
Sweden forcibly sterilised around 20,000 people between 1906 and 1975: Llach, L., Riera, L., & Maxia, A. (2023, June 8). Why did Sweden sterilise up to 30,000 people against their will in the cause of eugenics? Euronews. https://www.euronews.com/2023/06/08/how-did-sweden-sterilise-up-to-30000-people-against-their-will-in-the-cause-of-eugenics
in 2024, 143 Greenlandic women sued the Danish government: Olsen, J. M. (2024, March 4). Indigenous women in Greenland sue Denmark over involuntary contraception in the 1960s and 1970s. AP News. https://apnews.com/article/greenland-forced-contraception-lawsuit-compensation-denmark-539ef9e1e4ecd007dd34b2a024ecb0fa
The world’s two most populous countries also embarked on mass birth control: Follett, C. (2021, July 21). Neo‐Malthusianism and coercive population control in China and India: Overpopulation concerns often result in coercion. Cato Institute. https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/neo-malthusianism-coercive-population-control-china-india-overpopulation-concerns
sterilising millions of men under circumstances that often smacked of coercion: Green, H. (2018, October 1). The legacy of India’s quest to sterilize millions of men. Pulitzer Center. https://pulitzercenter.org/stories/legacy-indias-quest-sterilize-millions-men
Mass sterilisation persists in India to this day – as do concerns about safety and consent: Kudekallu, R. J. (2022, March 10). India’s forced sterilization practices under international human rights law. Völkerrechtsblog. Women in International Law Vol. 1. https://voelkerrechtsblog.org/indias-forced-sterilization-practices-under-international-human-rights-law/
which it claims prevented around 400 million births: Hvistendahl, M. (2017, October 18). Analysis of China’s one-child policy sparks uproar. Science. https://www.science.org/content/article/analysis-china-s-one-child-policy-sparks-uproar
it’s been claimed, for example, that China’s one-child policy was a politically acceptable and seemingly scientific alternative: Wang, F., Gu, B., & Cai, Y. (2016, March 30). The end of China’s one-child policy. Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-end-of-chinas-one-child-policy/
a combination of technological and economic innovations: Wikipedia Contributors. (2019). British agricultural revolution. In Wikipedia. Wikimedia Foundation. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Agricultural_Revolution
the ‘Green Revolution’, a package of agricultural technologies: Pingali, P. L. (2012). Green Revolution: Impacts, limits, and the path ahead. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109(31), 12302–12308. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0912953109
environmental impact was equal to population multiplied by affluence (or consumption) and technology (how many resources are needed): Holdren, J. (2021). A brief history of IPAT. The Journal of Population and Sustainability, 2(2), 66–74. https://doi.org/10.3197/jps.2018.2.2.66
Louis Bachelier… first suggested that stock prices moved randomly: Louis Bachelier: An underappreciated revolutionary. (2021). In History of Data Science. https://www.historyofdatascience.com/louis-bachelier-an-underappreciated-revolutionary/
Einstein proposed that water molecules move the same way: Einstein’s random walk. (2005, January 15). Physics World. https://physicsworld.com/a/einsteins-random-walk/
a model developed by the MIT economists Fischer Black, Myron Scholes and Robert Merton: Hayes, A. (2024). Black-Scholes model: What it is, how it works, and options formula. (G. Scott & S. Kvilhaug, Eds.). In Investopedia. Dotdash Meredith. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/blackscholes.asp
years earlier by Benoit Mandelbrot, ‘the father of fractals’, and by the trader and risk theorist Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Casti, J. (1997, April 18). Flight over Wall St. New Scientist, 2078. https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg15420784-700-flight-over-wall-st/
Taleb, N. N. (2007). The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable (1st ed.). Random House. https://openlibrary.org/works/OL3295030W/The_Black_Swan
Wall Street legend John Meriwether, whose bold trading style was immortalised in Michael Lewis’s book Liar’s Poker: Ritholtz, B. (2022, April 22). Revisiting Liar’s Poker, 30 years later. The Big Picture. https://ritholtz.com/2022/04/liars-poker-30-years-later/
LTCM stood to lose hundreds of billions of dollars: Yang, S. (2014, July 10). The epic story of how a ‘genius’ hedge fund almost caused a global financial meltdown. Business Insider. https://www.businessinsider.com/the-fall-of-long-term-capital-management-2014-7
said Roger Lowenstein, author of When Genius Failed, the definitive account of LTCM’s demise: Lowenstein, R. (2009, October 20). The forewarning in 1998: Long-term capital management [Interview]. In PBS. https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/warning/themes/ltcm.html
Four years later, it [the British Academy] eventually reported: Besley, T., & Hennessy, P. (2009). The global financial crisis – why didn’t anybody notice? British Academy Review, 14, 8–10. https://www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/publishing/review/14/british-academy-review-global-financial-crisis-why-didnt-anybody-notice/
the effects of climate change and financial panics driven by social media: Holden, L., King, J., Richards, H., Siegert, C., & Krebel, L. (2024). Measuring climate-related financial risks using scenario analysis. Quarterly Bulletin [Bank of England]. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/quarterly-bulletin/2024/2024/measuring-climate-related-financial-risks-using-scenario-analysis
Wells was a socialist and a republican, a eugenicist and, by our standards, a white supremacist [footnote]: Wells expressed sympathy for those ill-treated because of their race but believed they would eventually vanish or be subsumed into a homogenous ‘world state’.
copious mainstream fiction exploring the social mores of his day, and non-fiction proposing alternatives: Bowler, P. J. (2019, June 27). H. G. Wells and the uncertainties of progress. The Public Domain Review. https://publicdomainreview.org/essay/h-g-wells-and-the-uncertainties-of-progress/
Jules Verne… wrote ‘grand adventures’ detailing how submarines and rockets worked: Verne wrote of submarines, of course, in 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea (1869-70); and while his imaginary spaceship was fired out of a giant cannon in From the Earth to the Moon (1865), it manoeuvred by firing small rockets, just as real spacecraft did a century later.
In a 1902 lecture… later published as The Discovery of the Future: Wells, H. G. (1913). The discovery of the future. B. W. Huebsch. https://archive.org/details/discoveryoffutur00welliala/page/n5/mode/2up
he said during a 1932 radio broadcast on the BBC: Wells, H. G. (1932, November 19). Wanted – professors of foresight! [Radio show]. BBC. https://foresightinternational.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Wells_Wanted_Professors_of_Foresight.pdf
a small army of people who call themselves futurologists [footnote]: Many people who work in this field call themselves ‘futurists’, but that runs the risk of confusion with the Italian art movement of the same name – whose members also had pronounced views on the future. So I prefer futurologist, even if it is an uglier word.
The French poet Paul Valéry wrote: ‘The future, like everything else, is no longer quite what it used to be…’ [footnote]: He wasn’t the only one. The same year, the American writer Laura Riding also wrote ‘the future is not what it used to be’, in an essay addressed to her lover Robert Graves. People had given up on trying to shape it, she declared, and instead ‘behave with more and more fatally decisive immediacy’. O’Toole, G. (2012, December 6). Quote origin: The future is not what it used to be. Quote Investigator. https://quoteinvestigator.com/2012/12/06/future-not-used/
In his 1907 essay Pragmatism, he [William James] wrote: James, W. (1922). Pragmatism: A new name for some old ways of thinking. Longmans, Green & Co. https://www.gutenberg.org/files/5116/5116-h/5116-h.htm
one older than Oedipus, and in fact one of the oldest we have [footnote]: The anthropologist Julien d’Huy has suggested that the story of Odysseus and the cyclops Polyphemus is a version of an ancestral story that goes back 18,000 years. d’Huy, J. (2016, September 29). Scientists trace society’s myths to primordial origins. Scientific American. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/scientists-trace-society-rsquo-s-myths-to-primordial-origins/
the hero is introduced to us as polytropos, a man with many turns: Perhaps fittingly, there are many possible translations of polytropos, as the translator Emily Wilson explains (she opted for ‘complicated’): Wilson, E. (2024, September 16). On complicated… Emily’s Substack. https://emily613.substack.com/p/on-complicated
That inspired Murray Gell-Mann… to declare Odysseus as the model to whom we should aspire in the modern age: Horgan, J. (1992). Profile: Murray Gell-Mann: The lonely Odysseus of particle physics. Scientific American, 266(3), 30–33. https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/24938978.pdf. Gell-Mann set out his own expression of this idea in his book The Quark and the Jaguar: Gell-Mann, M. (2023). The quark and the jaguar: Adventures in the simple and the complex. The SFI Press Compass Series. (Original work published 1994) https://www.santafe.edu/news-center/news/sfi-press-releases-new-editions-murray-gell-mann-books