< Prologue: The Case for Optimism
It’s hard to tell if a chicken is an optimist: Zidar, J., Campderrich, I., Jansson, E., Wichman, A., Winberg, S., Keeling, L., & Løvlie, H. (2018). Environmental complexity buffers against stress-induced negative judgement bias in female chickens. Scientific Reports, 8(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-23545-6
Deakin, A., Browne, W. J., Hodge, J. J. L., Paul, E. S., & Mendl, M. (2016). A screen-peck task for investigating cognitive bias in laying hens. PLOS One, 11(7), e0158222. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0158222
Tedds, H. (2010). Cognitive bias in domestic hens (Gallus gallus domesticus): Optimism and the effects of environmental enrichment (pp. i–101) [PDF]. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.1.2856.6802
Hedlund, L., Palazon, T., & Jensen, P. (2021). Stress during commercial hatchery processing induces long-time negative cognitive judgement bias in chickens. Animals, 11(4), 1083. https://doi.org/10.3390/ani11041083
The first such tests were conducted in the early 2000s, on rats: Harding, E. J., Paul, E. S., & Mendl, M. (2004). Cognitive bias and affective state. Nature, 427, 312. https://doi.org/10.1038/427312a
left-pawed dogs are more ‘pessimistic’: Wells, D. L., Hepper, P. G., Milligan, A. D. S., & Barnard, S. (2017). Cognitive bias and paw preference in the domestic dog (Canis familiaris). Journal of Comparative Psychology, 131(4), 317–325. https://doi.org/10.1037/com0000080
European starlings become more ‘optimistic’: Matheson, S. M., Asher, L., & Bateson, M. (2008). Larger, enriched cages are associated with ‘optimistic’ response biases in captive European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris). Applied Animal Behaviour Science, 109(2-4), 374–383. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.applanim.2007.03.007
Cows learn faster when puffed with air: Kremer, L., van Reenen, C. G., Engel, B., Bokkers, E. A. M., Schnabel, S. K., van der Werf, J. T. N., & Webb, L. E. (2021). Developing a feasible and sensitive judgement bias task in dairy cows. Animal Cognition, 25(2), 425–445. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10071-021-01563-8
Mini pigs pick up the test: Murphy, E., Nordquist, R. E., & van der Staay, F. J. (2013). Responses of conventional pigs and Göttingen miniature pigs in an active choice judgement bias task. Applied Animal Behaviour Science, 148(1-2), 64–76. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.applanim.2013.07.011
Sheep given stress-inducing drugs: Monk, J. E., Belson, S., & Lee, C. (2019). Pharmacologically-induced stress has minimal impact on judgement and attention biases in sheep. Scientific Reports, 9(11446). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-47691-7
Bottlenose dolphins are more optimistic: Clegg, I. L. K., Rödel, H. G., & Delfour, F. (2017). Bottlenose dolphins engaging in more social affiliative behaviour judge ambiguous cues more optimistically. Behavioural Brain Research, 322(A), 115–122. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bbr.2017.01.026
sweeter to bumblebees: Morell, V. (2016). Don’t worry, bees are happy. Science. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aah7366
Procenko, O., Read, J. C. A., & Nityananda, V. (2024). Physically stressed bees expect less reward in an active choice judgement bias test. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 291(2032). https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2024.0512
with obvious implications for their welfare in agricultural contexts. [footnote]: Bizarrely, an earlier attempt to improve chickens’ well-being resulted in millions of them being fitted with tiny, rose-coloured glasses. It’s not as cute as it might sound: the glasses were to protect their eyes if they fought, as they often did when kept in close quarters; the colouration supposedly prevented them becoming frenzied by the sight of spilt blood.
Todd. (2011, November 21). Glasses for chickens. The Pioneer Way. https://thepioneerway.com/farming/glasses-chickens/
Jackson, A. (1903). Eye protector for chickens (United States Patent and Trademark Office Patent). https://patents.google.com/patent/US730918A/en
capuchin monkeys, marmosets and macaques all show judgment biases: Schino, G., Massimei, R., Pinzaglia, M., & Addessi, E. (2016). Grooming, social rank and “optimism” in tufted capuchin monkeys: A study of judgement bias. Animal Behaviour, 119, 11–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.anbehav.2016.06.017
Gordon, D. J., & Rogers, L. J. (2015). Cognitive bias, hand preference and welfare of common marmosets. Behavioural Brain Research, 287, 100–108. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bbr.2015.03.037
Iki, S., & Adachi, I. (2023). Fearful snake pictures make monkeys pessimistic. iScience, 26(9), 107622. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2023.107622
one trial involving three chimpanzees: Bateson, M., & Nettle, D. (2015). Development of a cognitive bias methodology for measuring low mood in chimpanzees. PeerJ, 3, e998. https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.998
It’s a judgment call [footnote]: This is you thinking as if you were in a mouse’s situation. How an actual mouse might gather and process this information is a subject for another book.
The premise of ‘error management theory’: Haselton, M. G., & Nettle, D. (2006). The paranoid optimist: An integrative evolutionary model of cognitive biases. Personality and Social Psychology Review, 10(1), 47–66. https://doi.org/10.1207/s15327957pspr1001_3
Johnson, D. D. P., Blumstein, D. T., Fowler, J. H., & Haselton, M. G. (2013). The evolution of error: Error management, cognitive constraints, and adaptive decision-making biases. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 28(8), 474–481. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2013.05.014
The error management perspective is only one way to explain the persistence of optimism. Not everyone agrees that it’s an adequate or necessary explanation. For example, here’s a contradictory view: Jefferson, A. (2017). Born to be biased? Unrealistic optimism and error management theory. Philosophical Psychology, 30(8), 1159–1175. https://doi.org/10.1080/09515089.2017.1370085
Merriam-Webster says optimism is: Optimism definition & meaning. (2025). In Merriam-Webster. https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/optimism
it wasn’t until 1980 that someone undertook the first real study: Weinstein, N. D. (1980). Unrealistic optimism about future life events. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 39(5), 806–820. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.39.5.806
Unwanted pregnancy, the consequences of smoking, getting cancer, breaking up, earthquakes, car crashes, even radon contamination in housing: Shepperd, J. A., Klein, W. M. P., Waters, E. A., & Weinstein, N. D. (2013). Taking stock of unrealistic optimism. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 8(4), 395–411. https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691613485247
It’s also true of more mundane events: See, for example: Sharot, T. (2012). Prologue. In The Optimism Bias: Why We’re Wired to Look on the Bright Side. Robinson. https://openlibrary.org/works/OL34597385M/Optimism_Bias
‘Even experts show startlingly optimistic biases…’: Sharot, T. (2011). The optimism bias. Current Biology, 21(23), R941–R945. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2011.10.030
By Sharot’s estimation, roughly 80 per cent of people: The truth about optimism, and how to manage your biases. (n.d.). Big Think. Retrieved January 15, 2025, from https://bigthink.com/neuropsych/tali-sharot-the-truth-about-optimism-and-how-to-manage-your-biases/
to view cognitive biases as errors to be stamped out: Benson, B. (2016, September 1). Cognitive bias cheat sheet. An organized list of cognitive biases because thinking is hard. Buster Benson. https://buster.medium.com/cognitive-bias-cheat-sheet-55a472476b18. Hosted on Medium.
Optimists like me apparently find it difficult to imagine: ‘Apparently’ because the relationship between optimism and tardiness remains more assumed than proven, despite articles like these ones popping up every decade: Korkki, P. (2007, June 3). For the chronically late, it’s not a power trip. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/03/business/yourmoney/03career.html
Haltiwanger, J. (2015, June 30). Optimistic people all have one thing in common: They’re always late. Elite Daily. https://www.elitedaily.com/life/culture/optimistic-people-have-one-thing-common-always-late/1097735
Chaudhuri, A. (2023, October 12). Are you a time optimist? Why some people are perennially late – and how to be more punctual. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2023/oct/12/are-you-a-time-optimist-why-some-people-are-perennially-late-and-how-to-be-more-punctual
And so we end up being late yet again [footnote]: Once I became aware of this, I made heroic attempts to overcome it. I can’t say I always succeed, but these days I more often get there in the nick of time than catastrophically late.
‘Who would try to do [self-driving cars] and rockets if they weren’t pathologically optimistic?’: Mohamed, T. (2023, May 23). Elon Musk says he’s an unrelenting optimist. Warren Buffett made a similar point about the Tesla chief’s vision and drive. Markets Insider. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/elon-musk-warren-buffett-tesla-spacex-munger-optimism-insurance-billionaires-2023-5
He’s notoriously insisted every year – for more than a decade: Marquis, E. (2024, October 10). Elon Musk has been promising self-driving cars for 10 years [update – we are now on year 11]. Jalopnik. https://jalopnik.com/elon-musk-tesla-self-driving-cars-anniversary-autopilot-1850432357
In 2018 he claimed: Terra, W. (2024, December 27). @Warrenterra.bsky.social. https://bsky.app/profile/warrenterra.bsky.social/post/3lebkczfnjk2x. Hosted on Bluesky.
‘I do have an issue with time,’: Matousek, M. (2018, June 6). Elon Musk admits he sets overly optimistic timelines for Tesla’s cars, says he has “an issue with time.” Business Insider. https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-says-he-sets-unrealistic-timelines-has-an-issue-with-time-2018-6?op=1
9 out of 10 megaprojects with a budget of more than $1 billion overrun or overspend (or both): Akst, D. (2023, June 19). Why do large projects go over budget? Strategy+Business. https://www.strategy-business.com/article/Why-do-large-projects-go-over-budget
Flyvbjerg, B. (2021, August 5). The iron law of megaprojects. Towards Data Science. https://towardsdatascience.com/the-iron-law-of-megaprojects-18b886590f0b
Unrealistically optimistic smokers, for example: Dillard, A. J., McCaul, K. D., & Klein, W. M. P. (2007). Unrealistic optimism in smokers: Implications for smoking myth endorsement and self-protective motivation. Journal of Health Communication, 11(sup001), 93–102. https://doi.org/10.1080/10810730600637343
in people at risk of heart conditions: Webster, R., & Heeley. (2010). Perceptions of risk: Understanding cardiovascular disease. Risk Management and Healthcare Policy, 3, 49–60. https://doi.org/10.2147/rmhp.s8288
of sexually transmitted diseases: Lopez, S. V., & Leffingwell, T. R. (2020). The role of unrealistic optimism in college student risky sexual behavior. American Journal of Sexuality Education, 15(2), 201–217. https://doi.org/10.1080/15546128.2020.1734131
alcohol misuse: Dillard, A. J., Midboe, A. M., & Klein, W. M. P. (2009). The dark side of optimism: Unrealistic optimism about problems with alcohol predicts subsequent negative event experiences. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 35(11), 1540–1550. https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167209343124
Sage Publications. (2009, November 17). Unrealistic optimism prompts risky behavior. ScienceDaily. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/11/091117094941.htm
and gambling problems: Makridakis, S., & Moleskis, A. (2015). The costs and benefits of positive illusions. Frontiers in Psychology, 6, 1–11. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2015.00859
It also raises tricky questions about their medical treatment: Jansen, L. A. (2020). Informed consent, therapeutic misconception, and unrealistic optimism. Perspectives in Biology and Medicine, 63(2), 359–373. https://doi.org/10.1353/pbm.2020.0024
For example, they asked people who were afraid of snakes: Carver, C. S., Blaney, P. H., & Scheier, M. F. (1979). Focus of attention, chronic expectancy, and responses to a feared stimulus. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 37(7), 1186–1195. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.37.7.1186
the most widely used version of the test: Carver, C. S. (2024, August). LOT-R (Life Orientation Test-Revised). Psy.miami.edu. https://www.psy.miami.edu/faculty/ccarver/lot-r.html
[Footnote]: Scheier, M.F., Carver, C.S. & Bridges, M.W. (1994), ‘Distinguishing optimism from neuroticism (and trait anxiety, self-mastery, and self-esteem): a reevaluation of the Life Orientation Test’, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Dec., 67(6), 1063–78: https://doi.org/10.1037//0022-3514.67.6.1063
optimism is generally celebrated (like the US)… widely seen as gauche (like France): Druckerman, P. (2018, March 22). Are the French the new optimists? The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/22/opinion/france-optimism-macron.html
2012 interview with Hans Villarica for The Atlantic: Villarica, H. (2012, April 23). How the power of positive thinking won scientific credibility. The Atlantic. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2012/04/how-the-power-of-positive-thinking-won-scientific-credibility/256223/
The very first of that research was published in 1985: Scheier, M. F , & Carver, C. S. (1985). Optimism, coping, and health: Assessment and implications of generalized outcome expectancies. Health Psychology, 4(3), 219-247. https://doi.org/10.1037/0278-6133.4.3.219
Higher levels of optimism have been linked to better sleep quality, lower inflammation and healthier levels of cholesterol and anti-oxidants; optimists have fewer heart problems and have been found to cope better with stress, pain, cancer and infertility. We’ve already seen that there’s a relationship between pessimism and depression; optimists have been reported as more resilient in the face of extreme events like natural disasters and terrorist attacks.
Sleep quality: Chen, N. R. Y., Majeed, N. M., Goh, A. Y. H., Koh, P. S., Chia, J. L., & Hartanto, A. (2024). Dispositional optimism, sleep, and trait affective mediators: A latent variable approach. Personality and Individual Differences, 230, 112801. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2024.112801
Inflammation: Bosch, J. A., Herr, R. M., Schmidt, B., Marz, W., Loerbroks, A., Pieper, L., & Wittchen, H. U. (2019). Abstract # 3122 Dispositional optimism predicts inflammation in cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses. Brain, Behavior, and Immunity, 76(Supplement), e23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bbi.2018.11.245
Cholesterol: Boehm, J. K., Williams, D. R., Rimm, E. B., Ryff, C., & Kubzansky, L. D. (2013). Relation between optimism and lipids in midlife. The American Journal of Cardiology, 111(10), 1425–1431. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amjcard.2013.01.292
Anti-oxidants: Boehm, J. K., Williams, D. R., Rimm, E. B., Ryff, C., & Kubzansky, L. D. (2013). Association between optimism and serum antioxidants in the midlife in the United States study. Psychosomatic Medicine, 75(1), 2–10. https://doi.org/10.1097/psy.0b013e31827c08a9
Heart problems: Rozanski, A., Bavishi, C., Kubzansky, L. D., & Cohen, R. (2019). Association of optimism with cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality: A systematic review and meta-analysis. JAMA Network Open, 2(9), e1912200. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2019.12200
Amonoo, H. L., Celano, C. M., Sadlonova, M., & Huffman, J. C. (2021). Is optimism a protective factor for cardiovascular disease? Current Cardiology Reports, 23, 158. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11886-021-01590-4
Stress: Baumgartner, J. N., Schneider, T. R., & Capiola, A. (2018). Investigating the relationship between optimism and stress responses: A biopsychosocial perspective. Personality and Individual Differences, 129, 114–118. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2018.03.021
Pain: Hanssen, M. M., Peters, M. L., Vlaeyen, J. W. S., Meevissen, Y. M. C., & Vancleef, L. M. G. (2013). Optimism lowers pain: Evidence of the causal status and underlying mechanisms. Pain, 154(1), 53–58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pain.2012.08.006
Cancer: Marton, G., Monzani, D., Vergani, L., Pizzoli, S. F. M., & Pravettoni, G. (2020). “Optimism is a strategy for making a better future”: A systematic review on the associations of dispositional optimism with health-related quality of life in cancer patients. European Psychologist, 27(1), 41–61. https://doi.org/10.1027/1016-9040/a000422
de Moor, J. S., de Moor, C. A., Basen-Engquist, K., Kudelka, A., Bevers, M. W., & Cohen, L. (2006). Optimism, distress, health-related quality of life, and change in cancer antigen 125 among patients with ovarian cancer undergoing chemotherapy. Psychosomatic Medicine, 68(4), 555–562. https://doi.org/10.1097/01.psy.0000222379.71389.91
Infertility: Bleil, M. E., Pasch, L. A., Gregorich, S. E., Katz, P. P., Millstein, S. G., & Adler, N. E. (2007). Dispositional optimism and psychological adjustment to fertility treatment. Fertility and Sterility, 88(Supplement 1), S84. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fertnstert.2007.07.280
Santa-Cruz, D., Chamorro, S., & Garcia-Velasco, J. A. (2019). The mediating role of optimism and resilience on emotional distress in infertility: an integrative literature review. International Journal of Psychological Research and Reviews, 1–13. https://doi.org/10.28933/ijprr-2019-09-2105
Natural disaster: Gero, K., Aida, J., Shirai, K., Kondo, K., & Kawachi, I. (2021). Dispositional optimism and disaster resilience: A natural experiment from the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami. Social Science & Medicine, 273, 113777. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2021.113777
Terrorist attacks: Ai, A. L., Evans-Campbell, T., Santangelo, L. K., & Cascio, T. (2006). The traumatic impact of the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks and the potential protection of optimism. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 21(5), 689–700. https://doi.org/10.1177/0886260506287245
Birkeland, M. S., Blix, I., Fjeld-Solberg, Ø., & Heir, T. (2017). Does optimism act as a buffer against posttraumatic stress over time? A longitudinal study of the protective role of optimism after the 2011 Oslo bombing. Psychological Trauma: Theory, Research, Practice, and Policy, 9(2), 207–213. https://doi.org/10.1037/tra0000188
Overall, the conclusion is that optimists tend to enjoy longer, happier and healthier lives.
Longer: Lee, L. O., James, P., Zevon, E. S., Kim, E. S., Trudel-Fitzgerald, C., Spiro, A., Grodstein, F., & Kubzansky, L. D. (2019). Optimism is associated with exceptional longevity in 2 epidemiologic cohorts of men and women. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116(37), 18357–18362. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1900712116
Davis, N. (2019, August 26). Optimism may hold secret to longer life, study suggests. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/26/optimism-may-hold-secret-to-longer-life-study-suggests
Happier: Oriol, X., Miranda, R., Bazán, C., & Benavente, E. (2020). Distinct routes to understand the relationship between dispositional optimism and life satisfaction: Self-Control and grit, positive affect, gratitude, and meaning in life. Frontiers in Psychology, 11, 907. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2020.00907
Healthier: Wong, S. (2009, August 11). Always look on the bright side of life… The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/science/blog/2009/aug/11/optimism-health-heart-disease
Oh, J., Purol, M. F., Weidmann, R., Chopik, W. J., Kim, E. S., Baranski, E., Schwaba, T., Lodi-Smith, J., & Whitbourne, S. K. (2022). Health and well-being consequences of optimism across 25 years in the Rochester Adult Longitudinal Study. Journal of Research in Personality, 99, 104237. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrp.2022.104237
evidence that some of the same genes: Mosing, M. A., Zietsch, B. P., Shekar, S. N., Wright, M. J., & Martin, N. G. (2009). Genetic and environmental influences on optimism and its relationship to mental and self-rated health: A study of aging twins. Behavior Genetics, 39(6), 597–604. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10519-009-9287-7
People with depression score low on the Life Orientation Test: Vickers, K. S., & Vogeltanz, N. D. (2000). Dispositional optimism as a predictor of depressive symptoms over time. Personality and Individual Differences, 28(2), 259–272. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0191-8869(99)00095-1
In 2008, the psychologists David Armor, Cade Massey and Aaron Sackett: Armor, D. A., Massey, C., & Sackett, A. M. (2008). Prescribed optimism: Is it right to be wrong about the future? Psychological Science, 19(4), 329–331. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9280.2008.02089.x
While ‘people generally prescribe being optimistic, feeling optimistic, or even thinking optimistically’, according to one study…: Miller, J. E., Park, I., Smith, A. R., & Windschitl, P. D. (2021). Do people prescribe optimism, overoptimism, or neither? OSF. https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/KD6HU
Optimism is not one thing: Shepperd, J. A., Klein, W. M. P., Waters, E. A., & Weinstein, N. D. (2013). Taking stock of unrealistic optimism. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 8(4), 395–411. https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691613485247
the Stockdale Paradox: Colagrossi, M. (2022, October 23). Stockdale Paradox: Why confronting reality is vital to success. Big Think. https://bigthink.com/health/stockdale-paradox-confronting-reality-vital-success/
‘Optimistic errors seem to be an integral part of human nature…’: Sharot, T. (2011). The optimism bias. Current Biology, 21(23), R941–R945. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2011.10.030
Joseph Henrich refers to the participants whose psyches dominate such research as WEIRD: Jones, D. (2020, September 2). Joe Henrich interview: Psychology must look beyond Western cultures. New Scientist. https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg24732982-500-joe-henrich-interview-psychology-must-look-beyond-western-cultures/
a single question put to just over 150,000 participants: Gallagher, M. W., Lopez, S. J., & Pressman, S. D. (2012). Optimism is universal: Exploring the presence and benefits of optimism in a representative sample of the world. Journal of Personality, 81(5), 429–440. https://doi.org/10.1111/jopy.12026
Our intuitive optimism extends to those close to us: Aue, T., Dricu, M., Moser, D. A., Mayer, B., & Bührer, S. (2021). Comparing personal and social optimism biases: Magnitude, overlap, modifiability, and links with social identification and expertise. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 8, 233. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-021-00913-8
We may extend it to those beyond our inner circle, too: Dricu, M., Schüpbach, L., Bristle, M., Wiest, R., Moser, D. A., & Aue, T. (2020). Group membership dictates the neural correlates of social optimism biases. Scientific Reports, 10(1), 1139. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-58121-4
Dricu, M., Bührer, S., Hesse, F., Eder, C., Posada, A., & Aue, T. (2018). Warmth and competence predict overoptimistic beliefs for out-group but not in-group members. PLOS One, 13(11), e0207670. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0207670
the success of the sports teams and political parties we support: Sports: Massey, C., Simmons, J. P., & Armor, D. A. (2011). Hope over experience. Psychological Science, 22(2), 274–281. https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797610396223
Love, B. C., Kopeć, Ł., & Guest, O. (2015). Optimism bias in fans and sports reporters. PLOS One, 10(9), e0137685. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0137685
Simmons, J. P., & Massey, C. (2012). Is optimism real? Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 141(4), 630–634. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0027405
Politics: Regan, D. T., & Kilduff, M. (1988). Optimism about elections: Dissonance reduction at the ballot box. Political Psychology, 9(1), 101–107. https://doi.org/10.2307/3791319
a 2018 piece by Taylor Lorenz in The Atlantic: Lorenz, T. (2018, December 18). Rising Instagram stars are posting fake sponsored content. The Atlantic. https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2018/12/influencers-are-faking-brand-deals/578401/
It’s been suggested that optimism is a way of deluding ourselves: McKay, R. T., & Dennett, D. C. (2010). The evolution of misbelief. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 32(6), 493–510. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0140525x09990975
Simple computer simulations demonstrate that this can be a winning strategy: Heifetz, A., & Spiegel, Y. (2000). On the evolutionary emergence of optimism. SSRN. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.247355
Evans, D., Heuvelink, A., & Nettle, D. (2003). The evolution of optimism: A multi-agent based model of adaptive bias in human judgement. Proceedings of the AISB’03 Symposium on Scientific Methods for the Analysis of Agent-Environment Interaction, University of Wales, 20–25. https://ccl.northwestern.edu/2003/evans2003.pdf
People like to hang out with optimists: With an interesting caveat: they like optimism expressed in absolute terms, not in terms of comparisons with others.
Hoorens, V., Van Damme, C., Helweg-Larsen, M., & Sedikides, C. (2017). The hubris hypothesis: The downside of comparative optimism displays. Consciousness and Cognition, 50, 45–55. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.concog.2016.07.003
a decent case that optimists do better at accumulating ‘status resources…’: Segerstrom, S. C. (2007). Optimism and resources: Effects on each other and on health over 10 years. Journal of Research in Personality, 41(4), 772–786. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrp.2006.09.004 but Segerstrom goes into much more detail in her book: Segerstrom, S. C. (2006). Breaking Murphy’s Law: How optimists get what they want from life – and pessimists can too. The Guilford Press.