< Chapter 6: The Elusive Future
The last day of the twentieth century and of the second millennium [footnote]: Yes, that actually came a year later. But you tell that to the people dancing in the streets.
crunch time for the so-called Y2K bug: Loeb, Z. (2019, December 31). 20 years ago today, Y2K came and went harmlessly. The Minnesota Star Tribune. https://www.startribune.com/20-years-ago-today-y2k-came-and-went-harmlessly/566612511
Faber, T. (2024, December 28). “All people could do was hope the nerds would fix it”: The global panic over the millennium bug, 25 years on. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/dec/28/all-people-could-do-was-hope-the-nerds-would-fix-it-the-global-panic-over-the-millennium-bug-25-years-on
US President Bill Clinton had said in 1998: Clinton, B. (1998, July 14). Remarks by the president concerning the year 2000 conversion [Speech]. http://www.techlawjournal.com/congress/y2k/80714clin.htm
We did act properly: a global effort to patch and upgrade vulnerable systems followed: Loeb, Z. (2019, December 30). The lessons of Y2K, 20 years later. The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/12/30/lessons-yk-years-later/
the ‘security theatre’ being performed at airports: Wikipedia Contributors. (2004). Security theater. In Wikipedia. Wikimedia Foundation. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Security_theater
Expert: TSA screening is security theater. (2008, December 21). CBS News. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/expert-tsa-screening-is-security-theater/
those occupants included the staff and delegates at an event being held on the 110th floor of the North Tower by Risk Publications: Risk commemorated those lost in the 9/11 attacks here: Risk Staff. (2021, September 10). 9/11: The colleagues we lost, and the years that followed. Risk.net. https://www.risk.net/comment/7869951/911-the-colleagues-we-lost-and-the-years-that-followed
Harvard psychologist Steven Pinker thought this was overdoing it… he told Julia Belluz of Vox in 2016: Pinker, S. (2016, August 16). You may think the world is falling apart. Steven Pinker is here to tell you it isn’t. (J. Belluz, Interviewer) [Interview]. In Vox. https://www.vox.com/2016/8/16/12486586/2016-worst-year-ever-violence-trump-terrorism
‘… a car trip of twelve miles has the same risk of death as a plane trip of three thousand miles.’ [footnote]: This has been disputed – a subsequent and seemingly more careful analysis found that deaths in car crashes did not rise, although ‘non-severe injuries’ did. Deonandan, R., & Backwell, A. (2011). Driving deaths and injuries post-9/11. International Journal of General Medicine, 4, 803–807. https://doi.org/10.2147/IJGM.S27049
In 2024, the arch-rationalist blogger Scott Alexander wrote: Alexander, S. (2024, January 16). Against learning from dramatic events. Astral Codex Ten. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/against-learning-from-dramatic-events
wrote the Portuguese writer and politician Rui Tavares in A Short Book on the Great Earthquake: Tavares, R. (2020). A short book on the Great Earthquake: Lisbon, 1755 (R. Matos, Trans.; p. 11). Tinta da China. https://tintadachina.pt/produto/a-short-book-on-the-great-earthquake/
‘The world we see is the world we have,’ [Taveres] wrote: Tavares, R. (2020). A short book on the Great Earthquake: Lisbon, 1755 (R. Matos, Trans.; p. 12). Tinta da China. https://tintadachina.pt/produto/a-short-book-on-the-great-earthquake/
‘I’ve learned that people want to follow an optimist’… Bush had said: Bush, G. W. (1999, June 12). Remarks announcing candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination. In The American Presidency Project [Speech]. UC Santa Barbara. https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/remarks-announcing-candidacy-for-the-republican-presidential-nomination-1
‘Every presidential candidate for thirty years has sought the optimist label,’ Seligman wrote: Seligman, M. E. P. (2016, August 5). Clinton is more optimistic than Trump. But optimism doesn’t predict winners anymore. The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/08/05/optimism-clinton-trump/
it’s astonishing how little thought the architects of ‘Operation Iraqi Freedom’ seemed to have given to any outcome but their preferred one: A technocratic perspective: Perry, W. L., Darilek, R. E., Rohn, L. L., & Sollinger, J. M. (Eds.). (2015). Operation Iraqi Freedom: Decisive war, elusive peace. In Rand. Rand Corporation. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1214.html
and a more visceral one: Sky, E. (2023, March 15). I came to Iraq as an idealistic volunteer and was nearly killed in my first week. New Statesman. https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2023/03/emma-sky-iraq-idealistic-volunteer-nearly-killed
Strategists drew up colour-coded maps of neatly redrawn boundaries across the Middle East: Blood borders. (2006). Armed Forces Journal. http://armedforcesjournal.com/blood-borders/ This example is from 2006, but I believe it reflects the kind of thinking that went into the war.
Pundits described how self-determination in Iraq would sow the seeds of freedom: Yom, S. L. (2023, March 30). Hegemony, democracy, and the legacy of the Iraq war. Foreign Policy Research Institute. https://www.fpri.org/article/2023/03/hegemony-democracy-and-the-legacy-of-the-iraq-war/
Fukuyama himself was not in favour of the war: Fukuyama, F. (2023, March 20). Iraq, 20 Years Later. Persuasion. https://www.persuasion.community/p/iraq-20-years-later
Bush’s belief that he was doing God’s work: Cornwell, R. (2005, October 7). Bush: God told me to invade Iraq. The Independent. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/bush-god-told-me-to-invade-iraq-6262644.html
Johnston, N., & Stephens, M. (2024, December 31). Bush “thought he was on mission from God” in Iraq. The Telegraph. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/12/31/bush-thought-he-was-on-mission-from-god-in-iraq/
As an anonymous presidential aide (widely assumed to be Karl Rove) told The New York Times: Palma, B. (2021, December 12). Did Karl Rove say ‘We’re an empire now’? Snopes. https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/karl-rove-empire/
he wasted vast quantities of public money on hare-brained schemes: Wolmar, C. (2015, September 8). This is what Boris Johnson being mayor has actually cost London. The Independent. https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/this-is-what-boris-johnson-being-mayor-has-actually-cost-london-10491163.html
‘The doubters, the doomsters, the gloomsters – they are going to get it wrong again,’… he said:
Johnson, B. (2019, July 24). Boris Johnson’s first speech as prime minister: 24 July 2019. In gov.uk [Speech]. https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/boris-johnsons-first-speech-as-prime-minister-24-july-2019
As Jacob Rees-Mogg, one of Johnson’s biggest parliamentary cheerleaders, wrote: Rees-Mogg, J. (2019, July 21). The new PM must peddle optimism as if he were a steroid-boosted cyclist trying to win the Tour de France. The Sun. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9549551/boris-johnson-new-pm-must-peddle-optimism/
‘He must peddle optimism as if he were a steroid-boosted cyclist trying to win the Tour de France.’ [footnote]: Why a man as expensively educated as Rees-Mogg didn’t realise cyclists pedal rather than peddle, I’m not sure.
One of Johnson’s rivals for the leadership likened it to… shouting ‘Believe in the bin bags!’: My original source for this quote was this article: Stewart, H., & Walker, P. (2019, July 26). Boris Johnson as prime minister: what we’ve learned so far. The Guardian.https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/26/boris-johnson-as-prime-minister-what-weve-learned-so-far.
But most other reports suggest that Rory Stewart said ‘believe in the bin’, not ‘the binbags’: Buck, K. (2019, June 16). Stewart likens rivals’ Brexit ideas to stuffing too much rubbish in bin. Metro. https://metro.co.uk/2019/06/16/rory-stewart-likens-rivals-brexit-promises-to-stuffing-too-much-rubbish-in-the-bin-9973172/
Another commentator suggested that optimism had the perpetual advantage over pessimism that it gets things done: Lott, T. (2019, July 24). Boris Johnson’s optimism is a sales pitch that can only disappoint. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/24/boris-johnson-optimism-sales-pitch-only-disappoint
In a since-deleted 2017 Twitter exchange with David Allen Green: Green, D. A. (2017, July 4). “In some possible branches of the future leaving will be an error” – an exchange about Brexit with Dominic Cummings. Jack of Kent blog. https://web.archive.org/web/20180925153319/http://jackofkent.com:80/2017/07/in-some-possible-branches-of-the-future-leaving-will-be-an-error-an-exchange-about-brexit-with-dominic-cummings/
managed to get his deluxe wallpaper paid for by sending a couple of WhatsApp messages: Taylor, W. (2022, February 10). More woes for Boris? Now police consider investigating £100k Downing St flat refurb. LBC. https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/boris-johnson-wallpaper-downing-street/
‘One day it’s like a miracle, it will disappear,’ Donald Trump told the press: This was only one of many such optimistic proclamations that Trump made on the subject: Rieder, R. (2020, March 18). Trump’s statements about the coronavirus. FactCheck.org. https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/trumps-statements-about-the-coronavirus/
In March, Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro opined: AFP. (2021, June 19). Bolsonaro’s most controversial coronavirus quotes. France 24. https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20210619-bolsonaro-s-most-controversial-coronavirus-quotes
‘We just need more optimism,’ concluded arch-sceptic Senator Rand Paul: Blake, A. (2020, June 30). ‘We just need some more optimism’: Rand Paul’s crusade against Anthony Fauci takes a curious turn. The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/06/30/we-just-need-some-more-optimism-rand-pauls-crusade-against-anthony-fauci-take-curious-turn/
‘people did not tend to prescribe optimism for the dangers’: Miller, J. E., Strueder, J. D., Park, I., & Windschitl, P. D. (2023). Do people desire optimism from others during a novel global crisis? Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 37(1). https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.2362
opinion polls… show considerably more public support for significant action on climate change than is reflected by political actions: Ritchie, H. (2024, March 25). More people care about climate change than you think. Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/climate-change-support
Eichhorn, J., & Grabbe, H. (2025). Europeans still want climate action, but don’t trust governments to deliver. In Bruegel. https://www.bruegel.org/policy-brief/europeans-still-want-climate-action-dont-trust-governments-deliver
a novel pandemic had been at the top of the UK government’s Risk Register: Pegg, D. (2020, May 21). Covid-19: did the UK government prepare for the wrong kind of pandemic? The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/21/did-the-uk-government-prepare-for-the-wrong-kind-of-pandemic
In 2016, the UK government conducted Exercise Cygnus… The result anticipated many problems that later arose: Public Health England. (2017). Annex B: Exercise Cygnus report (accessible). In gov.uk. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-pandemic-preparedness/exercise-cygnus-report-accessible-report
A more concise overview:
Staff Writer. (2021). Whatever happened to Exercise Cygnus? Journal of Anaesthesia Practice. https://japractice.co.uk/2021/03/whatever-happened-exercise-cygnus/13926
That same year, the UK also conducted the smaller Exercise Alice: McKee, M. (2021, October 11). Exercise Alice: the UK government tested the response to a coronavirus, but why are we only discovering this now? BMJ Opinion. https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/10/11/exercise-alice-the-uk-government-did-test-the-response-to-a-coronavirus-but-why-are-we-only-discovering-this-now/
‘If [the US federal government] can spend trillions stockpiling nuclear weapons…’: Avishai, B. (2020, April 21). The pandemic isn’t a black swan but a portent of a more fragile global system. The New Yorker. https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-pandemic-isnt-a-black-swan-but-a-portent-of-a-more-fragile-global-system
[the Covid vaccine] was the result of decades of work, most of it in the face of utter disinterest: Katalin Karikó told the story of her journey ‘from “crazy mRNA lady” to Nobel laureate’ in her biography Breaking Through, reviewed here: Cookson, C. (2024). Breaking Through: My Life in Science by Katalin Karikó — from “crazy mRNA lady” to Nobel laureate [Review of Breaking Through: My Life in Science, by K. Karikó]. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/37edfe5f-1a29-4bba-88aa-ba464a163f49
wrote Daniel Kahneman in Thinking, Fast and Slow: Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. Penguin Books. https://openlibrary.org/books/OL38715031M/Thinking_Fast_and_Slow page 264
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the World Health Organization, reminded delegates… that, six years earlier, he had stood on the same stage and warned that the world was not prepared for a pandemic: Ghebreyesus, T. (2024, February 12). WHO director-general’s speech at the World Governments Summit – 12 February 2024. In World Health Organization [Speech]. World Governments Summit. https://www.who.int/director-general/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-speech-at-the-world-governments-summit—12-february-2024
In 1913, Eleanor H. Porter wrote the first of twelve books about Pollyanna Whittier: Porter, E. H. (2013). Pollyanna. L. C. Page & Company. https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Pollyanna
Having inherited a stately home in Northumberland and a seat in the House of Lords: Technically, Ridley inherited his viscountcy, and was ‘elected’ to the Lords in 2013, after limitations were imposed on the number of hereditary peers in the Lords in 1999.
his 2010 book, The Rational Optimist: Ridley, M. (2010). The rational optimist: How prosperity evolves. Fourth Estate. https://www.mattridley.co.uk/books/the-rational-optimist-how-prosperity-evolves/
the subject of the first bank run in the UK since 1878: O’Connell, D. (2017, September 12). The collapse of Northern Rock: Ten years on. BBC News. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41229513
a self-described ‘lukewarmer’: Ridley, M. (2015, January 20). My life as a climate lukewarmer. Matt Ridley. https://www.mattridley.co.uk/blog/my-life-as-a-climate-lukewarmer/
Ridley, M. (2013, January 25). Matt Ridley: A lukewarmer’s ten tests. The Global Warming Policy Foundation. https://www.thegwpf.org/publications/matt-ridley-a-lukewarmers-ten-tests/
he has claimed that ‘global greening’… will be beneficial for agriculture: Ridley, M. (2019, July 8). Ridley: Rejoice, the Earth is becoming greener. Human Progress. https://humanprogress.org/ridley-rejoice-the-earth-is-becoming-greener/
not even the co-author of one of the papers on which his claim rests: Ridley, M. (2016, October 19). Global greening versus global warming. Matt Ridley. https://www.mattridley.co.uk/blog/global-greening-versus-global-warming/
More recently, he has become influential in promoting the idea that Covid originated in a Chinese lab: Ridley, M. (2024, September 10). There is now very little doubt that Covid leaked from a lab. Matt Ridley. https://www.mattridley.co.uk/blog/there-is-now-very-little-doubt-that-covid-leaked-from-a-lab/
My colleague Liz Else wrote about The Rational Optimist for New Scientist: Ridley, M. (2010, June 9). Matt Ridley: Optimism without limits (L. Else, Interviewer). In New Scientist. https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20627645-500-matt-ridley-optimism-without-limits/
Their judgment of Ridley’s assessment was scathing: Else, L. (2010, June 10). Experts review a section of Matt Ridley’s book. CultureLab. https://web.archive.org/web/20150427022254/http://www.newscientist.com/blogs/culturelab/2010/06/matt-ridley-comments.html
Ridley, for his part, promptly wrote a rebuttal, citing more studies to back up his point: Ridley, M. (2010, June 23). Letter: Rational optimist. New Scientist, 2766. https://www.newscientist.com/letter/mg20627660-400-rational-optimist/
By arguing for the development of gas reserves, he continues, ‘I consistently argue against my own financial interest’: Ridley, M. (n.d.). Explore Blagdon. Matt Ridley. Retrieved January 15, 2025, from https://web.archive.org/web/20250115000402/https://www.mattridley.co.uk/explore-blagdon/
This notice has since been amended to read: “I had a financial interest while coal mining was taking place on my family’s land. The details are commercially confidential, but I have always been careful to disclose that I had this interest in my writing when relevant. I am proud that the coal mining on my land contributed to the local and national economy.” There is now no mention of gas reserves.
he is also an adviser to the Global Warming Policy Foundation: Who we are. (n.d.). The Global Warming Policy Foundation. Retrieved June 5, 2025, from https://www.thegwpf.org/who-we-are/#academicAdvisoryCouncil
which once propagated old-school climate denialism of the variety that insists warming isn’t happening: Montague, B. (2018, November 12). The men behind Britain’s climate denying charity. The Ecologist. https://theecologist.org/2018/nov/12/men-behind-britains-climate-denying-charity
GWPF trustee David Frost took it upon himself to announce… that rising temperatures were ‘likely to be beneficial’ in the UK: Frost, D. (2023, July 24). [Speech]. Motion to take note. https://hansard.parliament.uk/Lords/2023-07-24/debates/BE13347F-1D63-4A8D-B805-7828576CF77E/ClimateChange#contribution-D6CD9434-938B-4C38-A5C5-FDA523CD46DE
for example, by funding slickly produced YouTube videos that minimise the downsides of climate change: Yoder, K. (2024, January 17). Climate denialism on YouTube has evolved into something else. Mother Jones. https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2024/01/climate-denialism-youtube-disinformation-misinformation-prageru/
‘One of my favourite sayings is that there are two kinds of people in the world: optimists and pessimists…’ Mark Zuckerberg told a roomful of do-gooders: Clifford, C. (2017, November 30). This favorite saying of Mark Zuckerberg reveals the way the Facebook billionaire thinks about life. CNBC Make It. https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/30/why-facebook-ceo-mark-zuckerberg-thinks-the-optimists-are-successful.html
‘How else can the individual welcome change over security?’ asked Robert Noyce: Robert Noyce. (n.d.). The Age of Ideas. Retrieved June 5, 2025, from https://theageofideas.com/robert-noyce/
In a 1988 survey, four-fifths of entrepreneurs claimed their business had more than a 70 per cent chance of surviving: Sharot, T., & Kappes, A. (2015). Optimism and entrepreneurship: A double-edged sword. In Nesta (p. 5). https://media.nesta.org.uk/documents/optimism_and_entrepreneurship_-_a_double-edged_sword.pdf
Stewart Butterfield co-founded both Flickr, which pioneered online photo-sharing, and the team messaging platform Slack: Bercovici, J. (2015, April 7). The man behind the billion-dollar app that’s changing how we communicate. Maxim. https://www.maxim.com/maxim-man/man-behind-billion-dollar-app-thats-changing-how-we-communicate/
Even complete failure doesn’t put truly optimistic entrepreneurs off: Hwang, K., & Choi, J. (2021). How do failed entrepreneurs cope with their prior failure when they seek subsequent re-entry into serial entrepreneurship? Failed entrepreneurs’ optimism and defensive pessimism and coping humor as a moderator. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18(13), 7021. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18137021
The ultra-optimistic won’t be told that their idea won’t work, or listen to friendly suggestions that, having given it their best shot, it’s time to let it go and try something else: Hmieleski, K. M., & Baron, R. A. (2017). Entrepreneurs’ optimism and new venture performance: A social cognitive perspective. Academy of Management Journal, 52(3), 473–488. https://doi.org/10.5465/amj.2009.41330755
Elizabeth Holmes, whose Steve Jobs cosplay… persuaded a celestial list of powerbrokers to back her health-tech start-up, Theranos: Blanding, M. (2025, February 26). Fake it till you fail: Elizabeth Holmes and the Theranos story. UVA Darden Ideas to Action. https://ideas.darden.virginia.edu/theranos-darden-case
‘Basically, through a really harsh approach, [the Roman emperor Augustus] established 200 years of world peace,’ [Zuckerberg] told The New Yorker in 2018: Osnos, E. (2018, September 10). Can Mark Zuckerberg fix Facebook before it breaks democracy? The New Yorker. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/09/17/can-mark-zuckerberg-fix-facebook-before-it-breaks-democracy
Higgins, C. (2018, September 12). What’s behind Mark Zuckerberg’s man-crush on emperor Augustus? The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/12/what-attracts-mark-zuckerberg-roman-hardman-augustus
Zuckerberg’s products have also got quite a lot of people killed – from refugee Rohingyas to suicidal teenagers:
Rohingyas: Myanmar: Facebook’s systems promoted violence against Rohingya; Meta owes reparations. (2022, September 29). Amnesty International. https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/09/myanmar-facebooks-systems-promoted-violence-against-rohingya-meta-owes-reparations-new-report/
Teenagers: Yang, A. (2024, January 31). Mark Zuckerberg apologizes to parents at online child safety hearing. NBC News. https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/social-media/mark-zuckerberg-apologizes-parents-online-child-safety-hearing-rcna136578
The average life of a company in the Standard & Poor’s 500 index is only fifteen years: Gittleson, K. (2012, January 19). Can a company live forever? BBC News. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16611040
For example, buying anti-malarial bed-nets saved far more lives per dollar spent than, say, safer drinking water: Piper, K. (2018, October 18). Bednets are one of our best tools against malaria — but myths about their misuse threaten to obscure that. Vox. https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2018/10/18/17984040/bednets-tools-fight-mosquitoes-malaria-myths-fishing
Members of the EA movement began to make recommendations that were so counterintuitive as to raise eyebrows: The life and death of Oxford’s ‘effective altruism’ dream. (2024, June 19). Oxford Clarion. https://oxfordclarion.uk/wytham-abbey-and-the-end-of-the-effective-altruism-dream/
EA superstar Will MacAskill contemplated the vast numbers of humans who would never exist if humanity became extinct now: Samuel, S. (2022, September 6). Effective altruism’s most controversial idea. Vox. https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23298870/effective-altruism-longtermism-will-macaskill-future
any life was worth living [footnote]: This is questionable: it leads to the so-called ‘Repugnant Conclusion’ that it’s better to have lots of people living in abject misery than comparatively few living in comfort. Arrhenius, G., Ryberg, J., & Tännsjö, T. (2024). The Repugnant Conclusion. In Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Winter 2024). Metaphysics Research Lab, Stanford University. https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/repugnant-conclusion/
the ways EAs have estimated extreme risks are unrealistic: Thorstad, D. (2023). Category: Mistakes in moral mathematics. Reflective Altruism. https://reflectivealtruism.com/category/my-papers/mistakes-in-moral-mathematics/
how would you keep up such a programme over vast stretches of time and space? Cremer, C. Z., & Kemp, L. (2021). Democratising risk: In search of a methodology to study existential risk. SSRN. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3995225
if we were to spend all our time and energy on securing the well-being of future generations, today’s society would fall apart: Crary, A. (2023). The toxic ideology of longtermism. Radical Philosophy, 214, 49–57. https://www.radicalphilosophy.com/commentary/the-toxic-ideology-of-longtermism